Pragmatic approaches to handling practice effects in longitudinal cognitive aging research.

INTRODUCTION: The challenge of accounting for practice effects (PEs) when modeling cognitive change was amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic, which introduced period and mode effects that may bias the estimation of cognitive trajectory. METHODS: In three Kaiser Permanente Northern California prospective cohorts, we compared predicted cognitive trajectories and the association of grip strength with cognitive decline using three approaches: (1) no acknowledgment of PE, (2) inclusion of a wave indicator, and (3) constraining PE based on a preliminary model (APM) fit using a subset of the data. RESULTS: APM-based correction for PEs based on balanced, pre-pandemic data, and with current age as the timescale produced the smallest discrepancy between within-person and between-person estimated age effects. Estimated associations between grip strength and cognitive decline were not sensitive to the approach used. DISCUSSION: Constraining PEs based on a preliminary model is a flexible, pragmatic approach allowing for meaningful interpretation of cognitive change. HIGHLIGHTS: The magnitude of practice effects (PEs) varied widely by study. When PEs were present, the three PE approaches resulted in divergent estimated age-related cognitive trajectories. Estimated age-related cognitive trajectories were sometimes implausible in models that did not account for PEs. The associations between grip strength and cognitive decline did not differ by the PE approach used. Constraining PEs based on estimates from a preliminary model allows for a meaningful interpretation of cognitive change.

A statistical framework for tracking the time-varying superspreading potential of COVID-19 epidemic.

Timely detection of an evolving event of an infectious disease with superspreading potential is imperative for territory-wide disease control as well as preventing future outbreaks. While the reproduction number (R) is a commonly-adopted metric for disease transmissibility, the transmission heterogeneity quantified by dispersion parameter k, a metric for superspreading potential is seldom tracked. In this study, we developed an estimation framework to track the time-varying risk of superspreading events (SSEs) and demonstrated the method using the three epidemic waves of COVID-19 in Hong Kong. Epidemiological contact tracing data of the confirmed COVID-19 cases from 23 January 2020 to 30 September 2021 were obtained. By applying branching process models, we jointly estimated the time-varying R and k. Individual-based outbreak simulations were conducted to compare the time-varying assessment of the superspreading potential with the typical non-time-varying estimate of k over a period of time. We found that the COVID-19 transmission in Hong Kong exhibited substantial superspreading during the initial phase of the epidemics, with only 1 % (95 % Credible interval [CrI]: 0.6-2 %), 5 % (95 % CrI: 3-7 %) and 10 % (95 % CrI: 8-14 %) of the most infectious cases generated 80 % of all transmission for the first, second and third epidemic waves, respectively. After implementing local public health interventions, R estimates dropped gradually and k estimates increased thereby reducing the risk of SSEs to approaching zero. Outbreak simulations indicated that the non-time-varying estimate of k may overlook the possibility of large outbreaks. Hence, an estimation of the time-varying k as a compliment of R as a monitoring of both disease transmissibility and superspreading potential, particularly when public health interventions were relaxed is crucial for minimizing the risk of future outbreaks.

Characterizing superspreading potential of infectious disease: Decomposition of individual transmissibility.

In the context of infectious disease transmission, high heterogeneity in individual infectiousness indicates that a few index cases can generate large numbers of secondary cases, a phenomenon commonly known as superspreading. The potential of disease superspreading can be characterized by describing the distribution of secondary cases (of each seed case) as a negative binomial (NB) distribution with the dispersion parameter, k. Based on the feature of NB distribution, there must be a proportion of individuals with individual reproduction number of almost 0, which appears restricted and unrealistic. To overcome this limitation, we generalized the compound structure of a Poisson rate and included an additional parameter, and divided the reproduction number into independent and additive fixed and variable components. Then, the secondary cases followed a Delaporte distribution. We demonstrated that the Delaporte distribution was important for understanding the characteristics of disease transmission, which generated new insights distinct from the NB model. By using real-world dataset, the Delaporte distribution provides improvements in describing the distributions of COVID-19 and SARS cases compared to the NB distribution. The model selection yielded increasing statistical power with larger sample sizes as well as conservative type I error in detecting the improvement in fitting with the likelihood ratio (LR) test. Numerical simulation revealed that the control strategy-making process may benefit from monitoring the transmission characteristics under the Delaporte framework. Our findings highlighted that for the COVID-19 pandemic, population-wide interventions may control disease transmission on a general scale before recommending the high-risk-specific control strategies.

Clinical Features and Imaging Findings of Myelin Oligodendrocyte Glycoprotein-IgG-Associated Disorder (MOGAD).

Myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein-IgG-associated disorder (MOGAD) is a nervous system (NS) demyelination disease and a newly recognized distinct disease complicated with various diseases or symptoms; however, MOGAD was once considered a subset of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD). The detection of MOG-IgG has been greatly improved by the cell-based assay test method. In one study, 31% of NMOSD patients with negative aquaporin-4 (AQP-4) antibody were MOG-IgG positive. MOGAD occurs in approximately the fourth decade of a person's life without a markedly female predominance. Usually, optic neuritis (ON), myelitis or acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM) encephalitis are the typical symptoms of MOGAD. MOG-IgG have been found in patients with peripheral neuropathy, teratoma, COVID-19 pneumonia, etc. Some studies have revealed the presence of brainstem lesions, encephalopathy or cortical encephalitis. Attention should be given to screening patients with atypical symptoms. Compared to NMOSD, MOGAD generally responds well to immunotherapy and has a good functional prognosis. Approximately 44-83% of patients undergo relapsing episodes within 8 months, which mostly involve the optic nerve, and persistently observed MOG-IgG and severe clinical performance may indicate a polyphasic course of illness. Currently, there is a lack of clinical randomized controlled trials on the treatment and prognosis of MOGAD. The purpose of this review is to discuss the clinical manifestations, imaging features, outcomes and prognosis of MOGAD.

Ratio of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases among ascertained SARS-CoV-2 infections in different regions and population groups in 2020: a systematic review and meta-analysis including 130 123 infections from 241 studies.

INTRODUCTION: Asymptomatic infection of SARS-CoV-2 may lead to silent community transmission and compromise the COVID-19 pandemic control measures. We aimed to estimate the rate of asymptomatic COVID-19 from published studies and compare this rate among different regions and patient groups. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, electronic databases including Medline, Embase, PubMed and three Chinese electronic databases (Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure [CNKI], WanFang Data and China Science, and Technology Journal Database [VIP]) were searched for literature published from 1 November 2019 to 31 December 2020. Original investigations with sample size (or number of subjects) not less than five were included for further analyses. Subgroup analyses were conducted according to different study types, study periods, geographical regions and patient demographics. The STATA (V.14.0) command 'metaprop' was implemented to conduct a meta-analysis of the pooled rate estimates of asymptomatic infections with exact binomial and score test-based 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: A total of 130 123 ascertained COVID-19 infections from 241 studies were included in this meta-analysis, including 31 411 asymptomatic infections. The overall rate of asymptomatic infections was 23.6% (18.5%-29.1%) and 21.7% (16.8%-27.0%) before and after excluding presymptomatic cases, respectively. Subgroup analysis showed that significantly higher in pregnant women (48.8%, 28.9%-68.9%), children (32.1%, 24.2%-40.5%), and studies reporting screening programmes (36.0%, 24.6%-48.1%) conducted on or after 1 March 2020 (42.5%, 33.4%-51.9%). In terms of geographical region, the rate was the highest in Africa (64.3%, 56.7%-71.6%), followed by America (40.0%, 27.4%-53.3%), Europe (28.1%, 19.0%-38.1%) and Asia (18.1%, 13.2%-23.5%). CONCLUSION: We approximated that one-fifth of COVID-19 infections are asymptomatic throughout the course of infection. Public health policies targeting these high-risk groups may be recommended to achieve early identification and more stringent containment of the pandemic.

Multilevel Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake Among South Asian Ethnic Minorities in Hong Kong: Cross-sectional Web-Based Survey.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a disproportionate effect on ethnic minorities. Across countries, greater vaccine hesitancy has been observed among ethnic minorities. After excluding foreign domestic helpers, South Asians make up the largest proportion of ethnic minorities in Hong Kong. It is necessary to plan for COVID-19 vaccination promotional strategies that cater to the unique needs of South Asians in Hong Kong. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the prevalence of COVID-19 vaccine uptake among a sample of South Asians in Hong Kong. We examined the effects of sociodemographic data and factors at individual level (perceptions), interpersonal level (information exposure on social media), and sociostructural level (cultural) based on the socioecological model. METHODS: A cross-sectional web-based survey was conducted on May 1-31, 2021. Participants were South Asian people aged 18 years or older living in Hong Kong; able to comprehend English, Hindi, Nepali, or Urdu; and having access to a smartphone. Three community-based organizations providing services to South Asians in Hong Kong facilitated the data collection. The staff of the community-based organizations posted the study information in WhatsApp groups involving South Asian clients and invited them to participate in a web-based survey. Logistic regression models were fit for data analysis. RESULTS: Among 245 participants, 81 (33.1%) had taken at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine (one dose, 62/245, 25.2%; and both doses, 19/245, 7.9%). After adjusting for significant background characteristics, cultural and religious reasons for COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy were associated with lower COVID-19 vaccine uptake (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.83, 95% CI 0.71-0.97; P=.02). At the individual level, having more positive attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccination (AOR 1.31, 95% CI 1.10-1.55; P=.002), perceived support from significant others (AOR 1.29, 95% CI 1.03-1.60; P=.03), and perceived higher behavioral control to receive COVID-19 vaccination (AOR 2.63, 95% CI 1.65-4.19; P<.001) were associated with higher COVID-19 vaccine uptake, while a negative association was found between negative attitudes and the dependent variable (AOR 0.73, 95% CI 0.62-0.85; P<.001). Knowing more peers who had taken the COVID-19 vaccine was also associated with higher uptake (AOR 1.39, 95% CI 1.11-1.74; P=.01). At the interpersonal level, higher exposure to information about deaths and other serious conditions caused by COVID-19 vaccination was associated with lower uptake (AOR 0.54, 95% CI 0.33-0.86; P=.01). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, one-third (81/245) of our participants received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. Cultural or religious reasons, perceptions, information exposure on social media, and influence of peers were found to be the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake among South Asians. Future programs should engage community groups, champions, and faith leaders, and develop culturally competent interventions.

Superspreading and heterogeneity in transmission of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have caused substantial public health burdens and global health threats. Understanding the superspreading potentials of these viruses are important for characterizing transmission patterns and informing strategic decision-making in disease control. This systematic review aimed to summarize the existing evidence on superspreading features and to compare the heterogeneity in transmission within and among various betacoronavirus epidemics of SARS, MERS and COVID-19. METHODS: PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase databases were extensively searched for original studies on the transmission heterogeneity of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 published in English between January 1, 2003, and February 10, 2021. After screening the articles, we extracted data pertaining to the estimated dispersion parameter (k) which has been a commonly-used measurement for superspreading potential. FINDINGS: We included a total of 60 estimates of transmission heterogeneity from 26 studies on outbreaks in 22 regions. The majority (90%) of the k estimates were small, with values less than 1, indicating an over-dispersed transmission pattern. The point estimates of k for SARS and MERS ranged from 0.12 to 0.20 and from 0.06 to 2.94, respectively. Among 45 estimates of individual-level transmission heterogeneity for COVID-19 from 17 articles, 91% were derived from Asian regions. The point estimates of k for COVID-19 ranged between 0.1 and 5.0. CONCLUSIONS: We detected a substantial over-dispersed transmission pattern in all three coronaviruses, while the k estimates varied by differences in study design and public health capacity. Our findings suggested that even with a reduced R value, the epidemic still has a high resurgence potential due to transmission heterogeneity.

How Transportation Restriction Shapes the Relationship Between Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide and COVID-19 Transmissibility: An Exploratory Analysis.

Background: Several recent studies reported a positive (statistical) association between ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and COVID-19 transmissibility. However, considering the intensive transportation restriction due to lockdown measures that would lead to declines in both ambient NO2 concentration and COVID-19 spread, the crude or insufficiently adjusted associations between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility might be confounded. This study aimed to investigate whether transportation restriction confounded, mediated, or modified the association between ambient NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility. Methods: The time-varying reproduction number (Rt ) was calculated to quantify the instantaneous COVID-19 transmissibility in 31 Chinese cities from January 1, 2020, to February 29, 2020. For each city, we evaluated the relationships between ambient NO2, transportation restriction, and COVID-19 transmission under three scenarios, including simple linear regression, mediation analysis, and adjusting transportation restriction as a confounder. The statistical significance (p-value < 0.05) of the three scenarios in 31 cities was summarized. Results: We repeated the crude correlational analysis, and also found the significantly positive association between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility. We found that little evidence supported NO2 as a mediator between transportation restriction and COVID-19 transmissibility. The association between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility appears less likely after adjusting the effects of transportation restriction. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the crude association between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility is likely confounded by the transportation restriction in the early COVID-19 outbreak. After adjusting the confounders, the association between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility appears unlikely. Further studies are warranted to validate the findings in other regions.

Change in eating habits and physical activities before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong: a cross-sectional study via random telephone survey.

BACKGROUND: Hong Kong is a densely populated city with a low incidence and mortality of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The city imposed different levels of social distancing including, the closure of sports venues and restrictions on eateries. This inevitably affects the eating behaviour and physical activities of the population. We examined the changes in eating behavior and physical activities before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, and identified sociodemographic factors associated with the behavioral changes. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study via a random telephone survey of Chinese adults conducted in Hong Kong from May to June, 2020 - a period in which social distancing measures were being imposed. We measured the physical activity habits from four aspects and dietary consumption patterns from seven aspects before and during the pandemic based on the World Health Organization's guidelines and previous publications. RESULTS: In total, 724 participants were recruited. Individuals were found to cook more frequently at home (p < 0.001) and order take-out (p < 0.001) during the COVID-19 pandemic. While no significant change in the frequency of fast food consumption was observed, we found significant increases in the frequency of eating fruits (p < 0.001) and vegetables (p = 0.004). The frequencies of walking, moderate-intensive sports, and high-intensity sports were significantly reduced (p < 0.001). We found that healthy lifestyle behaviors during the pandemic were negatively associated with participants' economic status. CONCLUSIONS: Social distancing measures likely provided an opportunity for individuals to stay home and thus eat healthier. However, in a prolonged period of social restrictions, a lower physical activity level poses a risk to public health. Public health officials are thus advised to monitor physical health on a population-wide basis. The findings highlighted the importance of interventions tailored to individuals who have prolonged home stays - particularly for individuals in the low economic group.

Limited role for meteorological factors on the variability in COVID-19 incidence: A retrospective study of 102 Chinese cities.

While many studies have focused on identifying the association between meteorological factors and the activity of COVID-19, we argue that the contribution of meteorological factors to a reduction of the risk of COVID-19 was minimal when the effects of control measures were taken into account. In this study, we assessed how much variability in COVID-19 activity is attributable to city-level socio-demographic characteristics, meteorological factors, and the control measures imposed. We obtained the daily incidence of COVID-19, city-level characteristics, and meteorological data from a total of 102 cities situated in 27 provinces/municipalities outside Hubei province in China from 1 January 2020 to 8 March 2020, which largely covers almost the first wave of the epidemic. Generalized linear mixed effect models were employed to examine the variance in the incidence of COVID-19 explained by different combinations of variables. According to the results, including the control measure effects in a model substantially raised the explained variance to 45%, which increased by >40% compared to the null model that did not include any covariates. On top of that, including temperature and relative humidity in the model could only result in < 1% increase in the explained variance even though the meteorological factors showed a statistically significant association with the incidence rate of COVID-19. In conclusion, we showed that very limited variability of the COVID-19 incidence was attributable to meteorological factors. Instead, the control measures could explain a larger proportion of variance.

Transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 in Chinese cities with different dynamics of imported cases.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring the reproduction number (Rt ) of the disease could help determine whether there is sustained transmission in a population, but areas with similar epidemic trends could have different transmission dynamics given the risk from imported cases varied across regions. In this study, we examined the Rt of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by taking different dynamics of imported cases into account and compared the transmissibility of COVID-19 at different intervention periods in Hangzhou and Shenzhen. METHODS: We obtained the daily aggregated counts of laboratory-confirmed imported and local cases of COVID-19 infections in Hangzhou and Shenzhen from January 1 to March 13, 2020. Daily Rt and piecewise Rt before and after Wuhan lockdown were estimated, accounting for imported cases. RESULTS: Since the epidemic of COVID-19 in Shenzhen was dominated by imported cases, Rt was around 0.1 to 0.7 before the Wuhan lockdown. After the lockdown of Wuhan and the initialization of measures in response to the outbreak, local transmission was well-controlled as indicated by a low estimated value of piecewise Rt , 0.15 (95% CI [0.09-0.21]). On the contrary, Rt obtained for Hangzhou ranged from 1.2 to 4.9 with a piecewise Rt of 2.55 (95% CI [2.13-2.97]) before the lockdown of Wuhan due to the surge in local cases. Because of the Wuhan lockdown and other outbreak response measures, Rt dropped below unity in mid-February. CONCLUSIONS: Even though Shenzhen had more cases than Hangzhou, local transmission did not sustain probably due to limited transmission from imported cases owing to the reduction in local susceptibles as residents left the city during Chunyun. The lockdown measures and local outbreak responses helped reduce the local transmissibility.

Association of time to diagnosis with socioeconomic position and geographical accessibility to healthcare among symptomatic COVID-19 patients: A retrospective study in Hong Kong.

Early diagnosis is important to control COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to assess how individual and area socioeconomic position and geographical accessibility to healthcare services were associated with the time to diagnosis among symptomatic COVID-19 patients in Hong Kong. Multivariable generalized linear regression was used to estimate the associations while adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and case classification. This study found living in public rental housing and living in an area with low education were associated with longer time to diagnosis in the first wave of infections. Specifically, the risk of delayed diagnosis for public rental housing residents was mitigated by the higher density of public clinics/hospitals but was slightly increased by the higher density of private medical practitioners nearby. No such relations were found in the second wave of infections when the surveillance measures were enhanced. Given the grave impact of pandemics around the world, our findings call on taking inequalities into account when public health policies are being devised.